One, there is increasingly backlash. I think there will be more and more backlash as influencer marketing grows and as it becomes a bigger part of the lexicon like the popular pop culture lexicon. As influencer becomes more of a thing, I think we're going to see more of a backlash. We're going to see more articles lashing out about influencers. We're going to see more think pieces about how influencers are ruining the world. That is one thing I think we're going to see is just more negative sentiment. I think we're going to see more of it. It's going to grow.

Marketing budgets are set months before January 1st, so there's already a pretty clear indication about how much influencer marketing is going to grow this year, and that growth is fairly significant. Barring a catastrophic economic collapse, which doesn't seem to be coming on, the markets are a little jittery right now, but it's because Trump is trying to burn the world down, and the markets don't like when that happens.

Generally, America's economy by most indicators is pretty strong right now. It doesn't seem like we are headed for a recession. I think we're probably headed for a little correction at some point where we'll dip down a bit because things are a little inflated right now, but that is neither here nor there. Let's move on. Influencer marketing will grow. That is number two, thing that you can expect. Number three, with that growth is going to come more competition. It's just going to get harder and harder not only to grow but to get the jobs. For easy numbers, if five years ago there was a 100 influencers and then a 1000, and then 10,000 and then 40,000 and a 100,000, I think that the growth and supply of influencers is greatly outpacing the growth in demand for sponsored posts and things like that, so I think it is going to get harder and harder to win those deals. I think you're going to have to fight more and more.

I think that influencers should really focus on retention; think of your retention numbers. Go back. This is a good thing to do in the beginning of the year. Go back. Write down every single campaign you did last year or every gifting campaign you had, every brand you worked with, every event you went- got invited to, whatever it might be, and think about retaining those clients A good business at minimum has 60%, 70% retention, so if you think about that, 70% of the clients you worked with this year, you should work with next year-- Sorry, 70% of the clients you worked with last year, you should work with this year.

If it is looking like it's 20%, there's a pretty big problem either with your performance or the way you're following up with brands. Something is wrong, so try and track those retention numbers. If you have been doing this for a while and you're more established, try and look at 2017 versus 2018, see how many clients you retained from 2017 to 2018. It is much easier and more lucrative to keep an old client and keep them coming back than it is to find a new one. We talk a lot about lifetime value of the client; think about that. Don't optimize for a single campaign or a single project. Try and keep clients for years.

As the industry gets more and more competitive, I think that the smart influencers will focus on retention and maintaining the relationships that they already have. Other than that, I think there's going to be big changes in Instagram. I think there will be some kind of marketplace selling something. They absolutely have to bring commerce into the platform. It is starting to look like it's not going to outpace Facebook but that it is going to become a bigger and bigger part of Instagram's advertising-- sorry, Facebook's overall advertising. Facebook's revenue is 98% of it is from advertising, so it's massively important for them. I do think they need to link it to commerce in some way. I think there will be more shopping involved in it in some way. I'm not exactly sure what that looks like, but I think it's only natural. I think you'll just see more changes.

Kevin and Mike who left were founders of Instagram. They, for years, fought against Zuckerberg and the other executives of Facebook to not change Instagram. Now that they're gone, I think we're going to see pretty big changes. Y'all saw the new scrolling that was there for 30 seconds where everyone was freaking the fuck out where you could no longer scroll with the thumb. It was all tapping. I think it was a good chance they could screw the platform up a good amount this year because I don't-- I think Mark Zuckerberg is amazing, and I think he is like a once-in-a-generation entrepreneur. I don't really believe in the executive team there that much.

I think the business has gotten too big to have-- What I want to say? Kevin and Mike who started it, they were driven by their belief system and what Instagram was and what the community should be, and the business of Instagram is too big now to make decisions based on that. They're going to make all their decisions on "how can I make more money out of this". Especially as Facebook usage continues to fall especially amongst young people, they're going to need to squeeze more and more and more out of Instagram, and I think in the same way that Facebook every year got less and less and less interesting, I think that Instagram will probably do the same thing.

Last point, I think that that opens up space for new platform. I am hoping really that a platform comes along this year that can start to challenge Instagram and that can be interesting and kind of fill the gap that I think Instagram isn't filling now because I think it's honestly too powerful. It's too ubiquitous, and it needs a challenger. Now that Snapchat's been beheaded essentially, I think there's room for someone else. We'll see who that'll be.